PSA 10$1,724PokemonPriceTracker 365d
PSA 9$230.61PokemonPriceTracker 365d
PSA 8$205.28PokemonPriceTracker 365d
Net EV$99.66$230.33 net sale vs $130.67 cost
EV rangeEV range: +55% / +76% / +108% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $87.58 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $47.01PSA 10 rate 10.8–14.0% (80% interval on 85 / 690); comps ±13.5% (comp quality 73). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 6% / 9 42% / 8 28% / ≤7 23%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 12.3% → adjusted 6.4% (Vintage, ×0.52 at $47 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenProfitable even with no PSA 10s
CostsRaw $47.01 + shipping $5.00 + grading $68.85 (expected; 6% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $3.80 = $130.67Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $1,474.32 · PSA 9 $192.52 · PSA 8 $170.77 · ≤7 $30.91PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 6% chance of an upcharge to Express; about 127 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitVintage grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium7.5x