Giratina (Team Plasma) Holo

Black and White Promos - #BW74 - Vintage - Holo Rare

VerifyRaw to grade

Max buy: ≥ $1,045
Current: $348.30
Expected ROI: > 300% (> 300% … > 300%)
Confidence: Low confidence in this verdict, show why
Low confidence in this verdict
Held by a blocker: Extreme EV needs comp review

Rank #105 of today's pool · score 74SignalsTop EVScarce· Also: Raw (watch), Slab (watch)

Held back by: Extreme EV needs comp review.
Today's $348.30 is well under the $1,045 max buy.
Few copies grade well (≤ 1.2% PSA 10 vs 6.4% typical), so we assume fewer 9s.

Extreme EV needs comp reviewHigh EV needs strong compsPSA 9 far above raw on a low-gem card (PSA 9 $9,900 is 28.4× raw $348.30)

Checklist 0 of 4 checked

Must check: EV over 300% is usually a bad comp; confirm the PSA 10 price with recent sales (we use PSA 10 $144,000).eBay sold PSA 10
Must check: EV over 150% needs comp quality ≥ 80 and liquidity ≥ 70; confirm PSA 9 and PSA 10 sales first (we use PSA 10 $144,000, PSA 9 $9,900).eBay sold PSA 10 eBay sold PSA 9
Must check: PSA 9 sells for 28.4× raw on a card that rarely grades well; confirm recent PSA 9 sales and that the raw copy is a real 9 candidate (we use PSA 9 $9,900).eBay sold PSA 9
Ask for front and back photos; check centering (55/45 or better), corners and surface.

Current

$348.30

PT ok$348 0%Scarcity 93Grade EV > 300%check comps

All-time high*

$499.99

All-time low*

$49.87

vs high

-30%

At support - floor $317.85 - 4x On sale - 30% off - Basing View on TCGplayer eBay Buy It Now eBay Auctions

Identity checkMatches

✓CardBlack and White Promos #BW74 · Holo

✓Tracker matchGiratina (Team Plasma) · Black and White Promos · #BW74

✓Raw pricePulse $348.30 vs tracker $348.30 (+0%)

✓Gem rate0.9% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing

✓PSA 10 comp$144,000 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID

✓PSA 9 comp$9,900 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID

✓PSA 8 comp$1,613 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID

Your grading resultsNone logged

Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on Vintage: none graded yet
Vintage grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 Vintage grades are back.

Graded economics> 300%check comps

PSA 10$144,000PokemonPriceTracker 90d

PSA 9$9,900PokemonPriceTracker 90d

PSA 8$1,613PokemonPriceTracker 90d

Net EV$2,608$3,229 net sale vs $621.41 cost

EV rangeEV range: > 300% / > 300% / > 300% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $1,044.90 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $348.30PSA 10 rate 0.6–1.2% (80% interval on 15 / 1686); comps ±8.0% (comp quality 84). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.

Outcome mix10 1% / 9 20% / 8 42% / ≤7 37%

PSA 10 ratePopulation 0.9% → adjusted 0.6% (Vintage, ×0.65 at $348 value, starting assumption)

Break-evenProfitable even with no PSA 10s

CostsRaw $348.30 + shipping $5.00 + grading $253.65 (expected; 63% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $8.46 = $621.41Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $139,556.22 · PSA 9 $8,828.16 · PSA 8 $1,378.49 · ≤7 $263.63PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 63% chance of an upcharge to Express/Premier/Premium 5; about 67 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).

Grade splitVintage split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 1.2% vs Vintage typical 6.4%): PSA 9 45% → 20%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw

PSA 10/9 premium14.5x

PopulationPSA 10

Gem rate0.9%

PSA 10 pop15

Total pop1,686

SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment

PSA 10 velocity-

Total velocity-

SnapshotJun 20, 2026

Scarcity93/100

LabelElite

Confidence100/100

Supply98/100

Demand100/100

Gem rate 0.9%PSA 10 pop 15/1686PSA 10/9 premium 14.5xSupply constraint 98/100

Raw validationconfirmed

TCG market$348.30

Pulse price$348.30

Delta0%

CheckedNov 1, 2026

Giratina (Team Plasma)PSA comps refreshed Nov 1, 2026PSA sales window 90 days

Signal context2

Support$317.85 floor, 4 tests

Drawdown30% off peak, Basing

*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-11-02). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.