Identity checkMatches
✓CardDark Explorers #104/108 · Holo
✓Tracker matchKyogre EX (104 Full Art) · Dark Explorers · #104/108
✓Raw pricePulse $504.48 vs tracker $504.48 (+0%)
✓Gem rate2.2% · GemRate card search enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$3,080 · PriceCharting crawler · this printing
✓PSA 9 comp$2,207 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$2,000 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on Vintage: none graded yet
Vintage grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 Vintage grades are back.
Graded economics+101%
PSA 10$3,080PriceCharting crawler
PSA 9$2,207PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$2,000PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV$688.88$1,374 net sale vs $684.87 cost
EV rangeEV range: +86% / +101% / +115% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $965.12 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $504.48PSA 10 rate 1.4–3.3% (80% interval on 9 / 408); comps ±7.5% (comp quality 85). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 1% / 9 32% / 8 36% / ≤7 31%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 2.2% → adjusted 1.4% (Vintage, ×0.65 at $504 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenProfitable even with no PSA 10s
CostsRaw $504.48 + shipping $5.00 + grading $158.43 (expected; 69% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $10.96 = $684.87Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $2,638.33 · PSA 9 $1,888.59 · PSA 8 $1,711.05 · ≤7 $384.26PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 69% chance of an upcharge to Express/Super Express; about 65 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitVintage split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 3.3% vs Vintage typical 6.4%): PSA 9 45% → 33%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium1.4x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate2.2%
PSA 10 pop9
Total pop408
SourceGemRate card search enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity72/100
LabelWatch
Confidence96/100
Supply96/100
Demand100/100
Gem rate 2.2%PSA 10 pop 9/408PSA 10/9 premium 1.4xSupply constraint 96/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$504.48
Pulse price$504.48
Delta0%
CheckedOct 30, 2026
Kyogre EX (104 Full Art)PSA comps refreshed Oct 30, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Support$500.00 floor, 2 tests
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-11-02). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.