Identity checkMatches
✓CardAquapolis #H17/H32 · Holo
✓Tracker matchMuk (H17) · Aquapolis · #H17/H32
✓Raw pricePulse $269.50 vs tracker $261.66 (-3%)
✓Gem rate12.3% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$2,221 · PokemonPriceTracker 365d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$348.31 · PokemonPriceTracker 365d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$189.10 · PokemonPriceTracker 365d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on Vintage: none graded yet
Vintage grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 Vintage grades are back.
Graded economics-3%
PSA 10$2,221PokemonPriceTracker 365d
PSA 9$348.31PokemonPriceTracker 365d
PSA 8$189.10PokemonPriceTracker 365d
Net EV−$10.00$353.02 net sale vs $363.02 cost
EV rangeEV range: -20% / -3% / +12% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $147.53 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $269.50PSA 10 rate 10.6–14.2% (80% interval on 67 / 544); comps ±13.5% (comp quality 73). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 8% / 9 41% / 8 28% / ≤7 23%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 12.3% → adjusted 8.0% (Vintage, ×0.65 at $270 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 8.7% adjusted (≈ 13.3% population)
CostsRaw $269.50 + shipping $5.00 + grading $71.12 (expected; 8% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $11.40 = $363.02Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $1,900.31 · PSA 9 $293.53 · PSA 8 $156.89 · ≤7 $156.89PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 8% chance of an upcharge to Express; about 125 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitVintage grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium6.4x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate12.3%
PSA 10 pop67
Total pop544
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 20, 2026
Scarcity80/100
LabelStrong
Confidence100/100
Supply77/100
Demand100/100
Gem rate 12.3%PSA 10 pop 67/544PSA 10/9 premium 6.4xSupply constraint 77/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$261.66
Pulse price$269.50
Delta-3%
CheckedJun 22, 2026
Muk (H17)PSA comps refreshed Jun 22, 2026PSA sales window 365 days
Signal context1
Support$71.15 floor, 3 tests
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-11-02). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.