Identity checkMatches
✓CardAquapolis #150/147 · Holo
✓Tracker matchNidoking (150) · Aquapolis · #150/147
!Raw pricePulse $400.00 vs tracker $500.00 (+25%)
✓Gem rate5.1% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$10,148 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$8,200 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$2,125 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on Vintage: none graded yet
Vintage grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 Vintage grades are back.
Graded economics> 300%check comps
PSA 10$10,148PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$8,200PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$2,125PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV$3,105$3,878 net sale vs $773.30 cost
EV rangeEV range: > 300% / > 300% / > 300% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $1,200.00 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $400.00PSA 10 rate 4.5–5.7% (80% interval on 112 / 2211); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 3% / 9 41% / 8 30% / ≤7 25%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 5.1% → adjusted 3.3% (Vintage, ×0.65 at $400 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenProfitable even with no PSA 10s
CostsRaw $400.00 + shipping $5.00 + grading $354.87 (expected; 75% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $7.43 = $773.30Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $9,069.44 · PSA 9 $7,170.91 · PSA 8 $1,818.52 · ≤7 $303.56PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 75% chance of an upcharge to Express/Premier/Premium 1; about 49 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitVintage split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 5.7% vs Vintage typical 6.4%): PSA 9 45% → 43%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium1.2x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate5.1%
PSA 10 pop112
Total pop2,211
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 20, 2026
Scarcity63/100
LabelWatch
Confidence100/100
Supply90/100
Demand100/100
Gem rate 5.1%PSA 10 pop 112/2211PSA 10/9 premium 1.2xSupply constraint 90/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$500.00
Pulse price$400.00
Delta+25%
CheckedOct 30, 2026
Nidoking (150)PSA comps refreshed Oct 30, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context2
Support$396.96 floor, 2 tests
Drawdown60% off peak, Falling
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-11-02). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.