PSA 10$1,006PokemonPriceTracker 365d
PSA 9$167.07PokemonPriceTracker 365d
PSA 8$132.25PokemonPriceTracker 365d
Net EV$190.78$380.77 net sale vs $189.98 cost
EV rangeEV range: +79% / +100% / +128% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $195.46 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $106.02PSA 10 rate 61.1–62.2% (80% interval on 7460 / 12103); comps ±13.5% (comp quality 73). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 36% / 9 29% / 8 19% / ≤7 16%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 61.6% → adjusted 35.9% (Vintage, ×0.58 at $106 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 9.6% adjusted (≈ 16.4% population)
CostsRaw $106.02 + shipping $5.00 + grading $67.17 (expected; 36% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $5.80 = $189.98Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $858.18 · PSA 9 $137.98 · PSA 8 $108.10 · ≤7 $76.49PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 36% chance of an upcharge to Priority; about 123 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitVintage grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium6.0x