PSA 10$9,000PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$1,015PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$171.27PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV$343.30$476.02 net sale vs $132.72 cost
EV rangeEV range: +239% / +259% / > 300% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $130.29 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $43.43PSA 10 rate 1.8–4.1% (80% interval on 9 / 331); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 1% / 9 36% / 8 34% / ≤7 29%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 2.7% → adjusted 1.4% (Vintage, ×0.51 at $43 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenProfitable even with no PSA 10s
CostsRaw $43.43 + shipping $5.00 + grading $74.63 (expected; 37% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $3.67 = $132.72Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $7,950.79 · PSA 9 $866.09 · PSA 8 $141.59 · ≤7 $28.15PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 37% chance of an upcharge to Priority/Premier; about 121 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitVintage split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 4.1% vs Vintage typical 6.4%): PSA 9 45% → 36%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium8.9x