Identity checkMismatch
✓CardBase Set (Shadowless) #007/102 · 1st Edition Holofoil (1 of 2 printings)
✓Tracker matchHitmonchan · Base Set (Shadowless) · #007/102
✕Raw pricePulse $225.00 vs tracker $300.00 (+33%)
✓Gem rate2.6% · GemRate card search enrichment · this printing
!PSA 10 comp$16,969 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
!PSA 9 comp$1,234 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
!PSA 8 comp$709.31 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on Vintage: none graded yet
Vintage grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 Vintage grades are back.
Graded economics+162%
PSA 10$16,969PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$1,234PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$709.31PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV$530.57$858.17 net sale vs $327.60 cost
EV rangeEV range: +133% / +162% / +194% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $592.78 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $225.00PSA 10 rate 2.2–3.1% (80% interval on 59 / 2265); comps ±8.0% (comp quality 84). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 2% / 9 31% / 8 36% / ≤7 31%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 2.6% → adjusted 1.7% (Vintage, ×0.64 at $225 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenProfitable even with no PSA 10s
CostsRaw $225.00 + shipping $5.00 + grading $81.83 (expected; 32% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $9.76 = $327.60Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $15,719.17 · PSA 9 $1,053.83 · PSA 8 $603.35 · ≤7 $168.39PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 32% chance of an upcharge to Priority/Premium 1; about 122 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitVintage split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 3.1% vs Vintage typical 6.4%): PSA 9 45% → 31%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium13.7x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate2.6%
PSA 10 pop59
Total pop2,265
SourceGemRate card search enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity88/100
LabelStrong
Confidence100/100
Supply95/100
Demand100/100
Gem rate 2.6%PSA 10 pop 59/2265PSA 10/9 premium 13.7xSupply constraint 95/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$300.00
Pulse price$225.00
Delta+33%
CheckedOct 29, 2026
HitmonchanPSA comps refreshed Oct 29, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context2
Support$225.00 floor, 2 tests
Drawdown50% off peak, Basing
Other printings of this card
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-11-02). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.