PSA 10$786.67PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$93.29PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$62.49PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$39.44$49.69 net sale vs $89.14 cost
EV rangeEV range: -47% / -44% / +9% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $15.40PSA 10 rate 0.0–15.4% (80% interval on 0 / 9); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 0% / 9 45% / 8 30% / ≤7 25%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 0.0% → adjusted 0.0% (Vintage, ×0.45 at $15 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 6.4% adjusted (≈ 14.1% population)
CostsRaw $15.40 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.75 = $89.14Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $669.74 · PSA 9 $74.67 · PSA 8 $48.23 · ≤7 $6.49PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitVintage grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium8.4x