Charizard Holo

Secret Wonders - #3/132 - Vintage - Holo Rare

VerifyRaw to grade

Max buy: ≥ $504.03
Current: $168.01
Expected ROI: > 300% (> 300% … > 300%)
Confidence: Low confidence in this verdict, show why
Low confidence in this verdict
Held by a blocker: Extreme EV needs comp review

Rank #96 of today's pool · score 31Top EV

Held back by: Extreme EV needs comp review.
Today's $168.01 is well under the $504.03 max buy.
Few copies grade well (≤ 2.4% PSA 10 vs 6.4% typical), so we assume fewer 9s.

Extreme EV needs comp reviewPSA 9 far above raw on a low-gem card (PSA 9 $7,633 is 45.4× raw $168.01)Raw price moved vs confirmationGraded comps matched by product, not printing

Checklist 0 of 5 checked

Must check: EV over 300% is usually a bad comp; confirm the PSA 10 price with recent sales (we use PSA 10 $10,374).eBay sold PSA 10
Must check: PSA 9 sells for 45.4× raw on a card that rarely grades well; confirm recent PSA 9 sales and that the raw copy is a real 9 candidate (we use PSA 9 $7,633).eBay sold PSA 9
Re-check the raw price; it moved more than 15% since it was confirmed.
Spot-check that the PSA comps are for this printing (we use PSA 10 $10,374, PSA 9 $7,633).eBay sold PSA 10 eBay sold PSA 9
Ask for front and back photos; check centering (55/45 or better), corners and surface.

Current

$168.01

PT ok$137 -18%Scarcity 68Grade EV > 300%check comps

All-time high*

$185.66

All-time low*

$119.00

vs high

-10%

Has support - floor $124.33 - 2x View on TCGplayer eBay Buy It Now eBay Auctions

Identity checkMatches

✓CardSecret Wonders #3/132 · Holo (1 of 2 printings)

✓Tracker matchCharizard · Secret Wonders · #3/132

!Raw pricePulse $168.01 vs tracker $137.03 (-18%)

✓Gem rate2.0% · GemRate card search enrichment · this printing

!PSA 10 comp$10,374 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID

!PSA 9 comp$7,633 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID

!PSA 8 comp$1,575 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID

Your grading resultsNone logged

Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on Vintage: none graded yet
Vintage grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 Vintage grades are back.

Graded economics> 300%check comps

PSA 10$10,374PokemonPriceTracker 90d

PSA 9$7,633PokemonPriceTracker 90d

PSA 8$1,575PokemonPriceTracker 90d

Net EV$2,023$2,479 net sale vs $455.79 cost

EV rangeEV range: > 300% / > 300% / > 300% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $504.03 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $168.01PSA 10 rate 1.7–2.4% (80% interval on 51 / 2535); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.

Outcome mix10 1% / 9 27% / 8 38% / ≤7 33%

PSA 10 ratePopulation 2.0% → adjusted 1.2% (Vintage, ×0.62 at $168 value, starting assumption)

Break-evenProfitable even with no PSA 10s

CostsRaw $168.01 + shipping $5.00 + grading $271.96 (expected; 67% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $4.82 = $455.79Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $9,289.86 · PSA 9 $6,618.49 · PSA 8 $1,346.30 · ≤7 $124.37PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 67% chance of an upcharge to Express/Premier/Premium 1; about 61 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).

Grade splitVintage split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 2.4% vs Vintage typical 6.4%): PSA 9 45% → 28%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw

PSA 10/9 premium1.4x

PopulationPSA 10

Gem rate2.0%

PSA 10 pop51

Total pop2,535

SourceGemRate card search enrichment

PSA 10 velocity-

Total velocity-

SnapshotJun 22, 2026

Scarcity68/100

LabelWatch

Confidence100/100

Supply96/100

Demand100/100

Gem rate 2.0%PSA 10 pop 51/2535PSA 10/9 premium 1.4xSupply constraint 96/100

Raw validationconfirmed

TCG market$137.03

Pulse price$168.01

Delta-18%

CheckedOct 27, 2026

CharizardPSA comps refreshed Oct 27, 2026PSA sales window 90 days

Signal context1

Support$124.33 floor, 2 tests

Other printings of this card

Rev Holo$441.24 Holo$168.01

*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-11-02). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.