PSA 10$112.51PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$25.25PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8-PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$88.56$16.96 net sale vs $105.52 cost
EV rangeEV range: -87% / -84% / -80% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $31.21PSA 10 rate 0.8–4.5% (80% interval on 2 / 105); comps ±12.0% (comp quality 76). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 1% / 9 37% / 8 33% / ≤7 28%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 1.9% → adjusted 0.9% (Vintage, ×0.49 at $31 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $31.21 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $3.32 = $105.52Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $91.16 · PSA 9 $16.27 · PSA 8 $16.27 · ≤7 $16.27PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitVintage split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 4.5% vs Vintage typical 6.4%): PSA 9 45% → 38%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw; no PSA 8 comp, so 8s valued like ≤7
PSA 10/9 premium4.5x