Identity checkMatches
✓CardNeo Destiny #006/105 · 1st Edition Holofoil (1 of 2 printings)
✓Tracker matchDark Gengar · Neo Destiny · #006/105
!Raw pricePulse $1,000 vs tracker $749.99 (-25%)
✓Gem rate12.6% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
!PSA 10 comp$19,619 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
!PSA 9 comp$3,871 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
!PSA 8 comp$1,767 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on Vintage: none graded yet
Vintage grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 Vintage grades are back.
Graded economics+162%
PSA 10$19,619PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$3,871PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$1,767PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV$2,138$3,458 net sale vs $1,321 cost
EV rangeEV range: +140% / +162% / +185% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $2,410.05 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $1,000PSA 10 rate 11.2–14.0% (80% interval on 114 / 907); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 90). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 8% / 9 41% / 8 28% / ≤7 23%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 12.6% → adjusted 8.2% (Vintage, ×0.65 at $1,000 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenProfitable even with no PSA 10s
CostsRaw $1,000.00 + shipping $5.00 + grading $294.43 (expected; 77% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $15.08 = $1,320.51Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $18,302.95 · PSA 9 $3,317.03 · PSA 8 $1,510.80 · ≤7 $767.00PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 77% chance of an upcharge to Express/Super Express/Premium 1; about 48 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitVintage grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium5.1x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate12.6%
PSA 10 pop114
Total pop907
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 20, 2026
Scarcity77/100
LabelStrong
Confidence100/100
Supply76/100
Demand100/100
Gem rate 12.6%PSA 10 pop 114/907PSA 10/9 premium 5.1xSupply constraint 76/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$749.99
Pulse price$1,000
Delta-25%
CheckedSep 29, 2026
Dark GengarPSA comps refreshed Sep 29, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Support$693.63 floor, 3 tests
Other printings of this card
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-11-02). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.