Identity checkMatches
✓CardExpedition #012/165 · Holo (1 of 2 printings)
✓Tracker matchFeraligatr (12) · Expedition · #012/165
✓Raw pricePulse $234.88 vs tracker $234.88 (+0%)
✓Gem rate3.4% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
!PSA 10 comp$5,629 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
!PSA 9 comp$2,667 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
!PSA 8 comp$502.56 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on Vintage: none graded yet
Vintage grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 Vintage grades are back.
Graded economics+158%
PSA 10$5,629PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$2,667PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$502.56PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV$673.23$1,100 net sale vs $426.62 cost
EV rangeEV range: +143% / +158% / +173% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $704.64 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $234.88PSA 10 rate 2.8–4.0% (80% interval on 49 / 1455); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 2% / 9 35% / 8 34% / ≤7 29%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 3.4% → adjusted 2.2% (Vintage, ×0.65 at $235 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenProfitable even with no PSA 10s
CostsRaw $234.88 + shipping $5.00 + grading $172.96 (expected; 37% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $7.79 = $426.62Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $4,825.55 · PSA 9 $2,283.20 · PSA 8 $425.91 · ≤7 $176.02PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 37% chance of an upcharge to Super Express/Premier; about 90 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitVintage split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 4.0% vs Vintage typical 6.4%): PSA 9 45% → 36%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium2.1x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate3.4%
PSA 10 pop49
Total pop1,455
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 20, 2026
Scarcity73/100
LabelWatch
Confidence100/100
Supply93/100
Demand100/100
Gem rate 3.4%PSA 10 pop 49/1455PSA 10/9 premium 2.1xSupply constraint 93/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$234.88
Pulse price$234.88
Delta0%
CheckedOct 30, 2026
Feraligatr (12)PSA comps refreshed Oct 30, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context2
Support$234.88 floor, 2 tests
Drawdown29% off peak, Basing
Other printings of this card
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-11-02). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.