Identity checkMismatch
✓CardLegendary Collection #010/110 · Rev Holo (1 of 2 printings)
✓Tracker matchFlareon · Legendary Collection · #010/110
✕Raw pricePulse $499.99 vs tracker $88.74 (-82%)
✓Gem rate4.3% · GemRate · this printing
!PSA 10 comp$2,878 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
!PSA 9 comp$442.75 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
!PSA 8 comp$156.00 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on Vintage: none graded yet
Vintage grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 Vintage grades are back.
Graded economics-52%
PSA 10$2,878PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$442.75PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$156.00PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$308.64$290.40 net sale vs $599.04 cost
EV rangeEV range: -55% / -52% / -47% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $131.69 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $499.99PSA 10 rate 3.7–5.1% (80% interval on 58 / 1342); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 90). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 3% / 9 39% / 8 31% / ≤7 27%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 4.3% → adjusted 2.8% (Vintage, ×0.65 at $500 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 18.5% adjusted (≈ 28.5% population)
CostsRaw $499.99 + shipping $5.00 + grading $68.11 (expected; 3% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $19.95 = $599.04Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $2,464.43 · PSA 9 $374.57 · PSA 8 $128.48 · ≤7 $128.48PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 3% chance of an upcharge to Super Express; about 130 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitVintage split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 5.1% vs Vintage typical 6.4%): PSA 9 45% → 40%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium6.5x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate4.3%
PSA 10 pop58
Total pop1,342
SourceGemRate
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity87/100
LabelStrong
Confidence100/100
Supply92/100
Demand100/100
Gem rate 4.3%PSA 10 pop 58/1342PSA 10/9 premium 6.5xSupply constraint 92/100
Raw validationprice mismatch
TCG market$88.74
Pulse price$499.99
Delta-82%
CheckedOct 5, 2026
FlareonPSA comps refreshed Oct 5, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context2
Momentum#84 / +219%
Support$142.54 floor, 3 tests
Other printings of this card
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-11-02). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.