Identity checkMatches
✓CardEX Delta Species #5/113 · Rev Holo (1 of 2 printings)
✓Tracker matchFlareon (Delta Species) · Delta Species · #5/113
!Raw pricePulse $149.99 vs tracker $121.84 (-19%)
✓Gem rate10.3% · GemRate · this printing
!PSA 10 comp$2,461 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
!PSA 9 comp$363.69 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
!PSA 8 comp$214.50 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on Vintage: none graded yet
Vintage grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 Vintage grades are back.
Graded economics+42%
PSA 10$2,461PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$363.69PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$214.50PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV$100.65$337.74 net sale vs $237.09 cost
EV rangeEV range: +25% / +42% / +55% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $160.35 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $149.99PSA 10 rate 9.0–11.8% (80% interval on 82 / 796); comps ±9.5% (comp quality 81). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 6% / 9 42% / 8 28% / ≤7 23%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 10.3% → adjusted 6.3% (Vintage, ×0.61 at $150 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 0.5% adjusted (≈ 0.9% population)
CostsRaw $149.99 + shipping $5.00 + grading $68.72 (expected; 6% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $7.38 = $237.09Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $2,106.32 · PSA 9 $306.73 · PSA 8 $178.69 · ≤7 $110.45PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 6% chance of an upcharge to Express; about 127 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitVintage grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium6.8x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate10.3%
PSA 10 pop82
Total pop796
SourceGemRate
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity81/100
LabelStrong
Confidence100/100
Supply80/100
Demand100/100
Gem rate 10.3%PSA 10 pop 82/796PSA 10/9 premium 6.8xSupply constraint 80/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$121.84
Pulse price$149.99
Delta-19%
CheckedJun 22, 2026
Flareon (Delta Species)PSA comps refreshed Jun 22, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Support$99.98 floor, 4 tests
Other printings of this card
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-11-02). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.