Identity checkMatches
✓CardNeo Discovery #02/75 · 1st Edition Holofoil (1 of 2 printings)
✓Tracker matchForretress (2) · Neo Discovery · #02/75
✓Raw pricePulse $62.50 vs tracker $62.50 (+0%)
✓Gem rate12.0% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
!PSA 10 comp$1,491 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
!PSA 9 comp$239.18 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
!PSA 8 comp$189.99 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on Vintage: none graded yet
Vintage grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 Vintage grades are back.
Graded economics+59%
PSA 10$1,491PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$239.18PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$189.99PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV$81.54$220.77 net sale vs $139.22 cost
EV rangeEV range: +45% / +59% / +64% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $94.81 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $62.50PSA 10 rate 10.4–13.7% (80% interval on 78 / 652); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 6% / 9 42% / 8 28% / ≤7 23%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 12.0% → adjusted 6.5% (Vintage, ×0.54 at $63 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenProfitable even with no PSA 10s
CostsRaw $62.50 + shipping $5.00 + grading $61.28 (expected; 6% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $4.44 = $139.22Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $1,274.52 · PSA 9 $199.87 · PSA 8 $157.65 · ≤7 $42.88PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 6% chance of an upcharge to Priority; about 131 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitVintage grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium6.2x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate12.0%
PSA 10 pop78
Total pop652
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 20, 2026
Scarcity80/100
LabelStrong
Confidence100/100
Supply78/100
Demand100/100
Gem rate 12.0%PSA 10 pop 78/652PSA 10/9 premium 6.2xSupply constraint 78/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$62.50
Pulse price$62.50
Delta0%
CheckedNov 1, 2026
Forretress (2)PSA comps refreshed Nov 1, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Support$57.41 floor, 5 tests
Other printings of this card
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-11-02). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.