PSA 10$83,917PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$3,350PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$1,564PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV$1,328$2,047 net sale vs $718.47 cost
EV rangeEV range: +166% / +185% / +225% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $1,465.56 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $488.52PSA 10 rate 1.1–1.6% (80% interval on 49 / 3584); comps ±8.0% (comp quality 84). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 1% / 9 23% / 8 41% / ≤7 36%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 1.4% → adjusted 0.9% (Vintage, ×0.65 at $489 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenProfitable even with no PSA 10s
CostsRaw $488.52 + shipping $5.00 + grading $208.14 (expected; 64% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $10.81 = $718.47Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $80,983.52 · PSA 9 $2,869.65 · PSA 8 $1,336.65 · ≤7 $371.93PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 64% chance of an upcharge to Express/Super Express/Premium 3; about 66 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitVintage split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 1.6% vs Vintage typical 6.4%): PSA 9 45% → 23%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium25.0x