Identity checkMatches
✓CardNeo Discovery #06/75 · 1st Edition Holofoil (1 of 2 printings)
✓Tracker matchKabutops (6) · Neo Discovery · #06/75
✓Raw pricePulse $148.72 vs tracker $134.00 (-10%)
✓Gem rate5.6% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$6,676 · PriceCharting crawler · this printing
!PSA 9 comp$336.65 · PokemonPriceTracker 365d · matched by product ID
!PSA 8 comp$129.44 · PokemonPriceTracker 365d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on Vintage: none graded yet
Vintage grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 Vintage grades are back.
Graded economics+53%
PSA 10$6,676PriceCharting crawler
PSA 9$336.65PokemonPriceTracker 365d
PSA 8$129.44PokemonPriceTracker 365d
Net EV$130.20$375.84 net sale vs $245.64 cost
EV rangeEV range: +11% / +53% / +102% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $130.43 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $148.72PSA 10 rate 4.7–6.7% (80% interval on 53 / 940); comps ±22.0% (comp quality 56). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 3% / 9 43% / 8 29% / ≤7 24%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 5.6% → adjusted 3.4% (Vintage, ×0.61 at $149 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 0.8% adjusted (≈ 1.4% population)
CostsRaw $148.72 + shipping $5.00 + grading $78.49 (expected; 3% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $7.43 = $245.64Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $5,723.90 · PSA 9 $283.52 · PSA 8 $105.69 · ≤7 $105.69PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 3% chance of an upcharge to Premier; about 129 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitVintage grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium19.8x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate5.6%
PSA 10 pop53
Total pop940
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 20, 2026
Scarcity86/100
LabelStrong
Confidence100/100
Supply89/100
Demand100/100
Gem rate 5.6%PSA 10 pop 53/940PSA 10/9 premium 19.8xSupply constraint 89/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$134.00
Pulse price$148.72
Delta-10%
CheckedJun 22, 2026
Kabutops (6)PSA comps refreshed Jun 22, 2026PSA sales window 365 days
Signal context1
Support$132.00 floor, 3 tests
Other printings of this card
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-11-02). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.