PSA 10$2,625PriceCharting
PSA 9$1,260PriceCharting
PSA 8-PriceCharting
Net EV$148.37$556.72 net sale vs $408.35 cost
EV rangeEV range: +12% / +36% / +50% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $268.60 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $312.50PSA 10 rate 2.3–3.7% (80% interval on 31 / 1053); comps ±26.0% (comp quality 48). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 2% / 9 34% / 8 35% / ≤7 30%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 2.9% → adjusted 1.9% (Vintage, ×0.65 at $313 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenProfitable even with no PSA 10s
CostsRaw $312.50 + shipping $5.00 + grading $72.24 (expected; 36% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $12.61 = $408.35Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $2,247.44 · PSA 9 $1,075.69 · PSA 8 $235.98 · ≤7 $235.98PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 36% chance of an upcharge to Priority/Super Express; about 121 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitVintage split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 3.7% vs Vintage typical 6.4%): PSA 9 45% → 34%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw; no PSA 8 comp, so 8s valued like ≤7
PSA 10/9 premium2.1x