PSA 10$45.66Market grade-curve estimate
PSA 9$8.10PokemonPriceTracker 365d
PSA 8-Market grade-curve estimate
Net EV−$83.17$1.65 net sale vs $84.83 cost
EV rangeEV range: -100% / -98% / -95% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $11.24PSA 10 rate 0.0–4.5% (80% interval on 0 / 35); comps ±27.0% (comp quality 46). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 0% / 9 38% / 8 34% / ≤7 29%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 0.0% → adjusted 0.0% (Vintage, ×0.45 at $11 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $11.24 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.60 = $84.83Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $33.79 · PSA 9 $1.65 · PSA 8 $1.65 · ≤7 $1.65PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitVintage split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 4.5% vs Vintage typical 6.4%): PSA 9 45% → 38%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw; no PSA 8 comp, so 8s valued like ≤7
PSA 10/9 premium5.6x