Identity checkMatches
✓CardNeo Genesis #019/111 · 1st Edition Holofoil (1 of 2 printings)
✓Tracker matchMetal Energy · Neo Genesis · #019/111
✓Raw pricePulse $27.28 vs tracker $27.28 (+0%)
✓Gem rate1.6% · GemRate card search enrichment · this printing
!PSA 10 comp$3,643 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
!PSA 9 comp$127.50 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
!PSA 8 comp$47.40 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on Vintage: none graded yet
Vintage grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 Vintage grades are back.
Graded economics-33%
PSA 10$3,643PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$127.50PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$47.40PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$34.57$69.03 net sale vs $103.60 cost
EV rangeEV range: -43% / -33% / -21% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $27.28PSA 10 rate 1.2–2.1% (80% interval on 22 / 1399); comps ±8.0% (comp quality 84). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 1% / 9 25% / 8 39% / ≤7 34%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 1.6% → adjusted 0.7% (Vintage, ×0.47 at $27 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 2.0% adjusted (≈ 4.2% population)
CostsRaw $27.28 + shipping $5.00 + grading $62.15 (expected; 1% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $3.17 = $103.60Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $3,121.46 · PSA 9 $104.02 · PSA 8 $35.28 · ≤7 $15.67PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 1% chance of an upcharge to Super Express; about 132 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitVintage split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 2.1% vs Vintage typical 6.4%): PSA 9 45% → 26%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium28.6x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate1.6%
PSA 10 pop22
Total pop1,399
SourceGemRate card search enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity91/100
LabelElite
Confidence100/100
Supply97/100
Demand100/100
Gem rate 1.6%PSA 10 pop 22/1399PSA 10/9 premium 28.6xSupply constraint 97/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$27.28
Pulse price$27.28
Delta0%
CheckedNov 1, 2026
Metal EnergyPSA comps refreshed Nov 1, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Support$25.33 floor, 5 tests
Other printings of this card
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-11-02). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.