Pikachu Holo

POP Series 4 - #013/017 - Vintage - Common

PassSlab

Max buy: PSA 10 ≤ $173.10PSA 9 ≤ $61.04
Current: $359.82
Slab: Search for discounted slabs
Confidence: Low confidence in this verdict, show why
Low confidence in this verdict
Held by a blocker: PriceTracker mismatch
Thin comps (comp quality 48, under 65)

Scored on demand (not in today's pool) · score 33

Held back by: PriceTracker mismatch (Pulse $359.82 vs tracker $30.06).
The slab market isn't strong enough yet (liquidity 84, comps 48).

PriceTracker mismatch (Pulse $359.82 vs tracker $30.06)No PSA 8 downside compAging graded compsThin graded comps

Checklist 0 of 4 checked

Must check: Open this printing's TCGplayer listing and confirm the price: expect about $30.06, not $359.82.TCGplayer
Search eBay sold for a PSA 8 to size the downside.eBay sold PSA 8
Check eBay sold PSA listings from the last 30 days (we use PSA 10 $283.16, PSA 9 $105.00).eBay sold PSA 10 eBay sold PSA 9
Add a few more PSA sold comps if you can (we use PSA 10 $283.16, PSA 9 $105.00).eBay sold PSA 10 eBay sold PSA 9 eBay sold PSA 8

Current

$359.82

PT price$30.06 -92%Scarcity 61Grade EV -77%

All-time high*

$369.63

All-time low*

$19.04

vs high

-3%

Momentum #85 - +217% - conf 65 Has support - floor $63.10 - 2x View on TCGplayer eBay Buy It Now eBay Auctions

Identity checkMismatch

✓CardPOP Series 4 #013/017 · Holo (1 of 2 printings)

✓Tracker matchPikachu · POP Series 4 · #013/017

✕Raw pricePulse $359.82 vs tracker $30.06 (-92%)

✓Gem rate17.7% · GemRate · this printing

✓PSA 10 comp$283.16 · PriceCharting · this printing

✓PSA 9 comp$105.00 · PriceCharting · this printing

!PSA 8 compNone (optional downside)

Your grading resultsNone logged

Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on Vintage: none graded yet
Vintage grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 Vintage grades are back.

Graded economics-77%

PSA 10$283.16PriceCharting

PSA 9$105.00PriceCharting

PSA 8-PriceCharting

Net EV−$343.79$102.32 net sale vs $446.11 cost

EV rangeEV range: -84% / -77% / -70% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $359.82PSA 10 rate 14.9–20.9% (80% interval on 48 / 271); comps ±26.0% (comp quality 48). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.

Outcome mix10 12% / 9 40% / 8 27% / ≤7 22%

PSA 10 ratePopulation 17.7% → adjusted 11.5% (Vintage, ×0.65 at $360 value, starting assumption)

Break-evenCan't break even at these prices

CostsRaw $359.82 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $15.30 = $446.11Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $237.61 · PSA 9 $84.71 · PSA 8 $84.71 · ≤7 $84.71PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).

Grade splitVintage grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw; no PSA 8 comp, so 8s valued like ≤7

PSA 10/9 premium2.7x

PopulationPSA 10

Gem rate17.7%

PSA 10 pop48

Total pop271

SourceGemRate

PSA 10 velocity-

Total velocity-

SnapshotJun 22, 2026

Scarcity61/100

LabelWatch

Confidence100/100

Supply68/100

Demand58/100

Gem rate 17.7%PSA 10 pop 48/271PSA 10/9 premium 2.7xSupply constraint 68/100

Raw validationprice mismatch

TCG market$30.06

Pulse price$359.82

Delta-92%

CheckedJun 22, 2026

PikachuPSA comps refreshed Jun 22, 2026

Signal context2

Momentum#85 / +217%

Support$63.10 floor, 2 tests

Other printings of this card

Holo$359.82 Normal$43.59

*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-11-02). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.