PSA 10$488.37PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$55.44PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$38.36PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$482.43$42.84 net sale vs $525.27 cost
EV rangeEV range: -93% / -92% / -90% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $436.20PSA 10 rate 2.2–6.0% (80% interval on 6 / 166); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 90). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 2% / 9 43% / 8 30% / ≤7 25%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 3.6% → adjusted 2.3% (Vintage, ×0.65 at $436 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $436.20 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $18.08 = $525.27Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $413.73 · PSA 9 $42.18 · PSA 8 $27.52 · ≤7 $27.52PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitVintage split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 6.0% vs Vintage typical 6.4%): PSA 9 45% → 44%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium8.8x