PSA 10$5,133PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$1,912PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$6,043PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV$1,497$2,541 net sale vs $1,045 cost
EV rangeEV range: +126% / +143% / +162% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $1,790.18 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $722.56PSA 10 rate 2.1–4.8% (80% interval on 9 / 285); comps ±7.5% (comp quality 85). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 2% / 9 38% / 8 32% / ≤7 27%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 3.2% → adjusted 2.1% (Vintage, ×0.65 at $723 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenProfitable even with no PSA 10s
CostsRaw $722.56 + shipping $5.00 + grading $298.38 (expected; 73% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $12.68 = $1,044.61Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $4,399.46 · PSA 9 $1,635.31 · PSA 8 $5,181.14 · ≤7 $552.71PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 73% chance of an upcharge to Express/Premier; about 54 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitVintage split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 4.8% vs Vintage typical 6.4%): PSA 9 45% → 39%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium2.7x