PSA 10$250.00PriceCharting crawler
PSA 9$133.20PriceCharting crawler
PSA 8$75.79PriceCharting crawler
Net EV−$75.48$90.96 net sale vs $166.45 cost
EV rangeEV range: -56% / -45% / -34% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $89.99PSA 10 rate 9.9–15.9% (80% interval on 26 / 206); comps ±17.5% (comp quality 65). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 7% / 9 42% / 8 28% / ≤7 23%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 12.6% → adjusted 7.2% (Vintage, ×0.57 at $90 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 66.5% adjusted (over 100% population)
CostsRaw $89.99 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $5.47 = $166.45Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $209.16 · PSA 9 $108.92 · PSA 8 $59.64 · ≤7 $59.64PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitVintage grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium1.9x