PSA 10$6,045PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$374.88PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$180.90PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV$174.43$340.76 net sale vs $166.33 cost
EV rangeEV range: +77% / +105% / +137% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $163.90 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $75.25PSA 10 rate 4.1–6.3% (80% interval on 35 / 687); comps ±8.0% (comp quality 84). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 3% / 9 43% / 8 29% / ≤7 24%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 5.1% → adjusted 2.8% (Vintage, ×0.55 at $75 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenProfitable even with no PSA 10s
CostsRaw $75.25 + shipping $5.00 + grading $75.23 (expected; 3% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $4.85 = $166.33Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $5,182.85 · PSA 9 $316.34 · PSA 8 $149.85 · ≤7 $52.72PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 3% chance of an upcharge to Premier; about 130 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitVintage split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 6.3% vs Vintage typical 6.4%): PSA 9 45% → 45%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium16.1x